SOS Call: Strength of Schedule Breakdown
Diving into what stands out for fantasy football prospects and their 2022 strength of schedule. Is the A.J. Brown breakout season upon us?
FIRST OFF, I’m excited to announce that we are going to change our direction towards Fantasy Football for the time being. Based on recent success in fantasy football leagues and research I’ve accumulated this summer, I believe it’s time to give back to the community and help fantasy owners win their leagues not due to my opinion on certain players, but the cold hard facts using advanced metrics & expert analysis.
One of the best metrics for either dynasty or redraft leagues when evaluating players is Strength of Schedule. For example, if you draft a young QB late in your draft, there should be an awareness to select or pick up another QB with a solid first 4 week schedule, just to eliminate the factor of being completely stuck with a below average QB while your league mates are running circles around you with their Lamars, Kylers, Herberts, etc.
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The Philadelphia Eagles
Before diving into any specific players, we have to talk about the potential of the Jalen Hurts & A.J. Brown duo in their first year together. Hurts, the former Alabama and Oklahoma QB had an interesting path into the league. A star for the Crimson Tide under Nick Saban, Hurts would’ve never envisioned that it would be a different QB, Tua Tagovailoa, that would be lifting the national championship trophy above their heads on Jan. 8th of 2018. After transferring to Oklahoma and propelling himself to a 2nd round pick in 2020, Jalen finds himself standing at 9-10 and one playoff appearance in one full season as a starter for the Philly Eagles.
This year, the Eagles go into the season with newly acquired A.J. Brown at the WR1, Heisman winner and former Bama WR Devonta Smith at the 2, Dallas Goedert holding down the TE spot, & Miles Sanders trying to stabilize the RB1 role in what could be a make or break season.
Jalen Hurts will always be a hard worker and great leader. I’ll actually elevate him above a guy like Kyler Murray in both of those aspects so far in their young careers. That what makes this season such a special one for the Eagles in my eyes. Philly hasn’t seen proper success from one of their franchise’s since the Nick Foles’ improbable Super Bowl win in 2018. However, based on their offensive potential and offensive line ranking (1st overall via PFF), fantasy owners should start to believe that this could be one of those spectacular seasons in the great state of Pennsylvania.
Strength of Schedule Finds:
1st Quarter Success
I’m not talking about 1st Quarter as in the actual game, but the 1st quadrant of games for the Eagles is superb.
Wk1: @DET Wk2: vs MIN Wk3: @WAS Wk4: vs JAX Wk5: @ARIGames between the Vikings, Jacksonville, & Arizona could end up being shootouts, which obviously boosts the offense’s value early on.
QB Ranks
Wk 1-5: Easiest Schedule
Wk 14-16 (Playoffs): 24th (easiest)
Overall: 4thRB Ranks
Overall: 28th
Tough stretch mid seasonWR Ranks
Overall: Easiest Schedule
Only two teams on schedule with projected “top tier defenses” against WRs
Based on the metrics, you might want to stack Hurts and Brown in redrafts if camp goes well between the two. The first 6 weeks before their bye could produce both QB1 and WR1 numbers for the duo. Although I think Sanders is due for a bounce back season, the schedule looks a little grim as Hurts will always take a chunk out of his redzone rushing value, and between Goedert, Smith, Brown, & Gainwell, Sanders could drop a few duds this season if not used as a receiver in the backfield. The only aspect keeping Sanders as an ADP steal is the fact that the Eagles have a top tier O line.
REDRAFT Value via Fantasy Pros:
Jalen Hurts: QB7
My Rank: QB5, Potential breakout top 4 QB
Miles Sanders: RB27
My Rank: RB25, RB2 with fairly solid floor
A.J. Brown: WR11
My Rank: WR6, Mid level WR1 with potential breakout
Devonta Smith: WR36
My Rank: WR36, WR3 with breakout year needed after this season
Dallas Goedert: TE8
My Rank: TE9, Limited Redzone TDs could become issue
Rookie WR Schedule Doubts
Chase Claypool, Brandon Aiyuk, & Terry McLaurin are just a few names that come to mind when thinking about rookie WRs that benefited off of solid schedules to start their career.
However, there is a dark side to that. Teams such as the Atlanta Falcons & Pittsburgh Steelers have difficult starts to their season for Rookie WRs Drake London (USC) and George Pickens (Georgia).
London is currently going in the top 40-50 in dynasty and as the WR39 in redraft. I’m not the biggest London fan, as I can’t see him being a succesful WR1 on a terrible team off the bat. Along with this, ATL opens with the Saints, Rams, Seahawks, Browns, & Bucs to start the season. Those are 5 solid defensive back groups and a scheduling conflict to take into account before drafting the massive USC receiver.
Jalen Tolbert is a name I’d like to see thrown around more when talking about selecting hit or miss WRs in redrafts. With Amari Cooper out of town and Gallup injured, Tolbert should find himself getting reps from their first game on.
This isn’t a “doubt pick”, as the speedy WR starts his season with 4/5 games that could be shootouts based on the Cowboys playstyle (Bucs, Bengals, Giants, Washington, Rams). This should propel Tolbert into at least the 2nd or 3rd tier of rookie WRs and I’d be comfortable spending a late round draft pick on him in most leagues.
Tolbert showed a good rapport with quarterback Dak Prescott on the first day of training camp, Jon Machota of The Athletic reports
Sorry Garrett Wilson lovers, but the Jets are projected to have the 30th Easiest schedule for WRs this season. However, Wilson should still have upside because he will be the WR2 on a squad that will still be down in a lot of games this season. It took Elijah Moore until halfway through last season to “get going”. Due to the tough schedule, I think it may be a similar tale with Wilson this year, as the mid season stretch of (@DEN, vs NE, vs BUF, BYE, @NE, vs CHI) could pose some problems.
Bounce Back TE Seasons?
Austin Hooper & Hayden Hurst have had eerily similar paths.
Hooper had 2 breakout seasons with Atlanta before leaving after his 2019 TE6 season. He ended up securing a larger contract with the Browns and dropped a few duds with Baker Mayfield before ending up with Mike Vrabel’s Titans for the 2022 season. The Titans lost Jonnu Smith to the Pats and haven’t found a replacement since, so Hooper will have an opportunity from day 1 to become Tannenhill’s favorite target with 2 other new faces between Robert Woods and Treylon Burks competing for targets.
Hayden Hurst had his breakout year with, well, yup… the Atlanta Falcons in 2020 finishing as the TE9. Atlanta then proceeded to draft Kyle Pitts which shot Hurst’s value and expectations in ATL. Now, Hurst joins the AFC Champion Bengals as he looks to provide a 3rd/4th receiving option for Joe Burrow.
Hooper’s 2021 Stats:
16 GMS: 61 TAR, 38 REC, 345 YDS, 3 TDS TE25
My 2022 Predictions:
16 GMS: 82 TAR, 55 REC, 505 YDS, 5 TDS TE11-16
Hurst’s 2021 Stats:
13 GMS: 31 TAR, 26 REC, 221 YDS, 3 TDS TE41
My 2022 Predictions:
16 GMS: 56 TAR, 46 REC, 474 YDS, 5 TDS TE13-18
One of Hooper or Hurst cracks the TE10 rank this season as both have a lot to prove in their make or break seasons on offenses that need TE production in the middle of the field. Hooper is currently the TE22 & Hurst the TE26 on FantasyPros. Whether you draft a top 5 tight end or want to wait to draft a dark horse for the position, these two athletes should be on your radar for draft season!
QBs Playoff Schedule
If you are serious about winning a fantasy championship, you need to start researching playoff schedules around draft time. Whether you want to stick with your top 5 QB option weeks 1-16 (except for bye), or transition into a 1-2 punch with mid tier QBs, playoff scouting is a must for every owner.
Good EOS Schedule (Wk14-17)
Deshaun Watson (@CIN, BAL, NO, @WAS)
Trey Lance (TB, @SEA, WAS, @LV)
Davis Mills (@DAL, KC, @TEN, JAX)
Trevor Lawerence (@TEN, DAL, @NYJ, @HOU)
Russell Wilson (KC, ARI, @LAR, @KC)
Bad EOS Schedule (Wk14-17)
Derek Carr (@LAR, NE, @PIT, SF)
Justin Fields (BYE, PHI, BUF, @DET)
Tua Tagovailoa (@LAC, @BUF, GB, @NE)
Joe Burrow (CLE, @TB, @NE, BUF)
SOS for QBs on New Teams
Russell Wilson 5th (easiest)
Carson Wentz 7th
Matt Ryan 8th
Trey Lance 14th
Deshaun Watson 16th
Marcus Mariota 17th
Drew Lock 18th
Mitchell Trubisky/Kenny Pickett 27th (yikes)
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