2024-25 NBA Season: Rest-of-Season Projections and Predictions
No one is talking about Denver... and that's just the way they like it.
As the 2025 NBA All-Star break comes to a close, this season feels unlike any other I’ve experienced. Beyond the shocking Luka Dončić–Anthony Davis trade that sent shockwaves through the league, there’s an undeniable sense of unpredictability. Both conferences boast multiple legitimate contenders, and fresh faces have emerged in the postseason race, adding a new layer of excitement (hello Memphis and Houston).
In the West, some teams are just entering their "positive era," positioning themselves for sustained success. Meanwhile, franchises like the Warriors, Suns, and Clippers seem to be approaching the end of their competitive window—unless they can mount a late-season push to stay relevant.
Looking at the East, how about those Cleveland Cavaliers? Cleveland is a legitimate contender and were aggressive at the deadline adding DeAndre Hunter to create what might be the best starting five in the league. Boston and New York are on their tail while Indiana, Milwaukee, and the incredible Detroit Pistons are near locks for postseason play.
While this isn't a full breakdown of the 2024-25 season so far, consider it a snapshot of what’s happened and a preview of what’s still to come in one of the most compelling NBA seasons I’ve witnessed.
I. CAPTURE THE FLAGG
Unfortunately, my in-person Cooper Flagg experience ended with my friends and I heading to the local Syracuse bar at halftime because the score was… rough. Flagg finished with 11 points, playing just 28 minutes. However, the freshman out of Maine is the real deal and teams will be lining up to take Coop first overall in this upcoming class that looks to be fairly deep. Here are the teams that will ‘try their best’ towards the end of the season but in reality, we all know what’s happening.
A NOTE ON EACH TANKER
Washington Wizards: Washington has something in second-year Frenchman Bilal Coulibaly and rookie guard Bub Carrington. Outside of that, the Wizards are fairly lost. Jordan Poole is in the middle of a 4-year $128 million contract and they will have to offload Khris Middleton to a contender during the off-season which feels like a heavy task for a front office that shouldn’t have to deal with heavy tasks moving forward. This team hasn’t had a winning season since 2017-18 and with this roster, they desperately need a game-changer like Flagg who can serve as the point of attack on both ends of the floor.
Charlotte Hornets: A season-ending wrist injury to Brandon Miller halted Charlotte’s ambitions for a play-in run this season. They rank 28th in offensive efficiency and somehow, 24th in pace. With LaMelo Ball, Mark Williams, and Miles Bridges playing key roles, why not roll the dice and pick up the pace on bigger teams? Charlotte hasn’t made the postseason since 2015-16 and honestly might need to move on from LaMelo at his peak because of the exact reason Nico Harrison moved on from Luka. The funny part is… they will be able to get much more.
Toronto Raptors: The Raptors are five games back from the play-in and although they made the bold move to acquire Brandon Ingram at the deadline, I could see Masai Ujiri looking ahead to next season to make a run and get one more piece in the draft to pair alongside his bubbly young core that hasn’t fully broken out yet. The Raptors currently are projected the 5th overall pick and with the opportunity to get a Flagg, Bailey, Harper, or Jakucionis it’s difficult to envision this squad suddenly figuring something out to end the season. With that being said, Toronto has the easiest remaining strength of schedule and will be competing for a playoff spot come next season with or without Flagg.
Brooklyn Nets: Once thought to be the hot commodity at the deadline, Cam Johnson surprisingly wasn’t moved to a different team. Brooklyn is holding onto Johnson and Cam Thomas as their offensive core, with Nic Claxton serving as the future of their frontcourt. Winning three in a row heading into All-Star break, Brooklyn shockingly had the best defense over the last ten games… but the 29th best offense. At 20-34, they definitely have the right coach in Jordi Fernández and the right ownership group to complete this rebuild, but it will take a player like Flagg to turn this franchise into a contender.
Chicago Bulls: Unsurprisingly, the Bulls messed up the deadline. Trading Zach LaVine but keeping Nikola Vucevic was a boneheaded move by this front office that hasn’t totally seemed to accept that fully tanking is the best option. The good news? Chicago now has their own 1st round pick so they can tank without looking over their shoulder. Josh Giddey has played well since joining this squad but outside of that and a few Ayo Dosunmu moments, Chicago might be in one of the biggest holes out of any team in the league. Time to move on from this front office and Billy Donovan in my eyes. Clean slate.
New Orleans Pelicans: A Dejounte Murray injury, Brandon Ingram trade, and Zion Williamson being Zion Williamson has led to a 13-42 start to New Orleans, who are close to moving on from the Willie Green era. The Zion pick has turned from one of the biggest ‘steals’ in NBA draft history into a ‘none of us want this anymore’ relationship. It should be clean-the-house time for New Orleans who desperately need to restart and get rid of their assets that don’t fit the timeline (bye bye C.J. McCollum).
Utah Jazz: The Jazz are going to be playoff contenders soon. Just not yet. If I could hand-pick a team for Cooper Flagg to head to, Utah might be my pick. While Danny Ainge and Will Hardy need to make the difficult decisions on which young players to keep and develop or trade away, Utah is getting closer and closer to having something. Watch out for Brice Sensabaugh, who could end up as one of the best 6th-man scorers in the association.
Portland Trail Blazers: Portland won 10 of 11 with the one loss coming to Oklahoma City from January 19th to February 6th. That’s extremely impressive considering their southpaw roster that consists of zero players under the height of 6’3 and just a boatload of young wings that can make highlight plays on both ends of the floor. Portland will play Clingan, Scoot, and Sharpe together more and more in the 2nd half of the season which will be a joy to watch on league pass but result in a handful of losing streaks putting them in contention for Flagg. This team is a ways away from contending but have hit the right notes over the last few draft classes.
II. REGULAR SEASON PREDICTIONS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
15 WASHINGTON WIZARDS
Current Record: 9-45
Projected Record: 14-68
SOS: 29th
X-Factor: Bilal Coulibaly’s On Ball Impact
14 CHARLOTTE HORNETS
Current Record: 13-39
Projected Record: 18-64
SOS: 12th
X-Factor: Maximizing LaMelo Ball’s Value
13 BROOKLYN NETS
Current Record: 20-34
Projected Record: 25-57
SOS: 15th
X-Factor: Jordi Fernández’s Team Defense
12 CHICAGO BULLS
Current Record: 22-33
Projected Record: 29-53
SOS: 16th
X-Factor: Losing Competitive Games
11 TORONTO RAPTORS
Current Record: 17-38
Projected Record: 32-50
SOS: 30th
X-Factor: Scottie Barnes’ Leadership
10 ATLANTA HAWKS
Current Record: 26-29
Projected Record: 36-46
SOS: 23rd
X-Factor: Dyson Daniels DPOY Time
9 MIAMI HEAT
Current Record: 25-28
Projected Record: 41-41
SOS: 25th
X-Factor: Pat Riley’s Culture Reset
8 PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Current Record: 20-34
Projected Record: 33-49
SOS: 27th
X-Factor: Paul George Somehow Fitting In
7 DETROIT PISTONS
Current Record: 29-26
Projected Record: 42-40
SOS: 18th
X-Factor: Malik Beasley’s 3-Point Shooting
6 ORLANDO MAGIC
Current Record: 27-29
Projected Record: 43-39
SOS: 24th
X-Factor: Paolo Banchero’s Health
5 MILWAUKEE BUCKS
Current Record: 29-24
Projected Record: 48-34
SOS: 7th
X-Factor: One Last Ride For Giannis?
4 INDIANA PACERS
Current Record: 30-23
Projected Record: 49-33
SOS: 19th
X-Factor: Unleashing the Full Court Press
3 NEW YORK KNICKS
Current Record: 36-18
Projected Record: 53-29
SOS: 8th
X-Factor: Thibs Trusting the Bench
2 BOSTON CELTICS
Current Record: 39-16
Projected Record: 58-24
SOS: 28th
X-Factor: 3-Point Shooting
1 Cleveland Cavaliers
Current Record: 44-10
Projected Record: 64-18
SOS: 14th
X-Factor: Bench Consistency
WESTERN CONFERENCE
15 New Orleans Pelicans
Current Record: 13-42
Projected Record: 16-66
SOS: 10th
X-Factor: Eyes on Flagg
14 Utah Jazz
Current Record: 13-41
Projected Record: 24-58
SOS: 9th
X-Factor: Developing Sensabaugh and Collier
13 Portland Trail Blazers
Current Record: 23-32
Projected Record: 33-49
SOS: 17th
X-Factor: Playing Scoot, Clingan, and Sharpe at Same Time
12 Sacramento Kings
Current Record: 28-27
Projected Record: 39-43
SOS: 2nd
X-Factor: Defensive Consistency
11 San Antonio Spurs
Current Record: 23-29
Projected Record: 40-42
SOS: 11th
X-Factor: Stephon Castle
10 Phoenix Suns
Current Record: 26-28
Projected Record: 41-41
SOS: 1st
X-Factor: Devin Booker & Kevin Durant’s Mentality
9 Dallas Mavericks
Current Record: 30-26
Projected Record: 44-38
SOS: 20th
X-Factor: Health
8 Golden State Warriors
Current Record: 28-27
Projected Record: 45-37
SOS: 22nd
X-Factor: Jimmy Butler’s Connection
7 Los Angeles Clippers
Current Record: 31-23
Projected Record: 47-35
SOS: 5th
X-Factor: Kawhi Leonard’s Morale
6 Minnesota Timberwolves
Current Record: 31-25
Projected Record: 48-34
SOS: 26th
X-Factor: Anthony Edwards’ Breakout Month
5 Los Angeles Lakers
Current Record: 32-20
Projected Record: 48-34
SOS: 6th
X-Factor: Defensive Consistency & Health
4 Houston Rockets
Current Record: 34-21
Projected Record: 49-33
SOS: 21st
X-Factor: Jalen Green’s Rise
3 Memphis Grizzlies
Current Record: 36-18
Projected Record: 52-30
SOS: 4th
X-Factor: Pushing the Pace
2 Denver Nuggets
Current Record: 36-19
Projected Record: 54-28
SOS: 3rd
X-Factor: Christian Braun & Peyton Watson
1 Oklahoma City Thunder
Current Record: 44-10
Projected Record: 65-17
SOS: 13th
X-Factor: 4th Quarter Scoring Consistency
III. Rest-of-Season Breakdown
The incredibly stacked Western Conference has shown us that depth, pace, 3-point shooting, and team defense is what matters most. The top four teams in the West have consistently been OKC, Memphis, Denver, and Houston thus far. OKC, Memphis, and Denver rank top 8 in pace. OKC and Houston are top 4 in defensive rating, with Memphis 7th and Denver 16th. OKC and Houston are surprisingly below league average in 3-point percentage, while Denver and Memphis are inside the top 6.
These are the four true contenders this season in the Western Conference and that brings us to Phil Jackson’s 40/20 rule. The Zen Master says that true title contenders need to win 40 games before losing 20 games. Let’s check out where these four teams stand.
Houston is 3-7 over their last ten, dropping to 34-21 on the year, sliding them out of Jackson’s contender list.
Denver is 36-19, sporting the exact same record at this point last season. A year ago, they tallied off six straight wins to hit 40 before 20 losses. They have the Hornets, Lakers, Pacers, and Bucks after the break to try and hit this mark once again.
Memphis is 36-18 with Indiana, Orlando, and Cleveland away from home before taking on Phoenix and New York at home. A tough stretch for the Grizz.
Oklahoma City has already surpassed this mark, 44-10 and leading Memphis by eight games in the West.
Why is this so important? In 14 of the last 15 eligible seasons, the champion has won 40 games before losing 20. The only outlier? The 2021 Bucks (and remember, that was the season after the bubble, which started in December). So if we are going by this rule, Oklahoma City and Denver are the teams to watch out west, while Memphis has an outside shot with their tough schedule on tap.
Elsewhere in the West, it is a scary time to be a Phoenix Sun. No matter how much production they seem to get from Booker, Durant, and/or Beal, this team cannot string together a set of victories. Following a hot 8-1 start, Phoenix is 18-27, with losing streaks of 3+ games six times already. With San Antonio on their heels and Pacific Division foes Sacramento and Golden State also vying for play-in berths, the Suns will have to navigate their health, depth, and hardest strength of schedule in the entire league in order to lock a play-in spot. I currently believe they have a better chance than new-look Sacramento, but it might be a coin toss between them and the Spurs as to who secures the 10 seed out West.
The Lakers, Rockets, Clippers, and Wolves are close - but not there yet. Minnesota hasn’t gotten that typical Anthony Edwards breakout stretch yet and hopefully it will come in the postseason for them. However, potential matchups against Denver or Memphis would be extremely difficult in Round 1 of the playoffs. While I wouldn’t want to see the Lakers in the first round, we will have to monitor how well Luka plays on both ends of the floor and the chemistry development with that starting roster. I believe they are a year away from truly contending. Norman Powell has the Clips rolling, but in a 7 game series against one of those top four teams out West? I’ll take the home squad. Then we have the self-sabotaging Mavs who should be able to lock in a play-in spot, but questions with AD’s health of course lead me to be skeptical of how impactful this team will be on both ends of the floor against a top tier Western Conference opponent in a long-term series.
Denver and Oklahoma City are the teams to watch out West, with Memphis, Houston, and the Lakers a year away from contending for the rights to win the best conference in basketball.
The Cavs, Celtics, and Knicks seem to be the three teams to beat in the East. Cleveland has already hit the 40/20 rule with 44 wins and 10 losses. Boston will also hit this mark, currently at 39-16. New York might be able to, with Chicago, Cleveland, Boston, Philly, and Memphis their next five opponents. They sit at 36-18 and would need to beat one of Cleveland or Boston to fulfill Jackson’s magical rule.
Outside of the three favorites, Indiana and Milwaukee have an outside shot at an upset should they get a chance to play beyond the first round of the playoffs. I absolutely love this Indiana team and think they would give both the Knicks and Cavs trouble in a 7-game series. Their bench is one of the deepest in the league, and Carslile’s newfound full court press gives teams issues. Bennedict Mathurin will be the playoff x-factor while Nembhard and McConnell are two guys you don’t want to match up with.
Detroit will most likely make their first playoff appearance since 2018-19. A really solid 3-point shooting team, they don’t have the pieces yet to make a run but will be a fun watch nonetheless. Orlando has struggled this season to stay consistent on offense and I’m not as confident in them this season to spark an upset on any of these top Eastern Conference teams.
With that being said, I will never doubt Joe Mazzulla, and Kenny Atkinson has really transformed this Cavaliers squad into a true contender. Thibs still hasn’t realized that playing his starting five an unrealistic amount of regular season minutes hinders his playoff rotation and chances at winning a championship.
The Cavs or Celtics will win the East, with Indiana being the upset generator.
IV. Playoff Predictions
EASTERN CONFERENCE PLAY-IN:
7 Miami Heat vs 8 Detroit Pistons
WINNER: MIAMI
9 Atlanta Hawks vs 10 Philadelphia 76ers
WINNER: PHILADELPHIA
8 Detroit Pistons vs 10 Philadelphia 76ers
WINNR: DETROIT
WESTERN CONFERENCE PLAY-IN:
7 Los Angeles Clippers vs 8 Golden State Warriors
WINNER: GOLDEN STATE
9 Dallas Mavericks vs 10 Phoenix Suns
WINNER: DALLAS
7 Los Angeles Clippers vs 9 Dallas Mavericks
WINNER: LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
EASTERN CONFERENCE ROUND ONE:
1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs 8 Detroit Pistons
CAVALIERS WIN SERIES 4-1
4 Indiana Pacers vs 5 Milwaukee Bucks
PACERS WIN SERIES 4-2
3 New York Knicks vs 6 Orlando Magic
KNICKS WIN SERIES 4-0
2 Boston Celtics vs 7 Miami Heat
CELTICS WIN SERIES 4-1
WESTERN CONFERENCE ROUND ONE:
1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs 8 Los Angeles Clippers
THUNDER WIN SERIES 4-1
4 Houston Rockets vs 5 Los Angeles Lakers
ROCKETS WIN SERIES 4-3
3 Memphis Grizzlies vs 6 Minnesota Timberwolves
GRIZZLIES WIN SERIES 4-2
2 Denver Nuggets vs 7 Golden State Warriors
NUGGETS WIN SERIES 4-1
EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS:
1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs 4 Indiana Pacers
PACERS WIN SERIES 4-3
2 Boston Celtics vs 3 New York Knicks
CELTICS WIN SERIES 4-1
WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS:
1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs 4 Houston Rockets
THUNDER WIN SERIES 4-1
2 Denver Nuggets vs 3 Memphis Grizzlies
NUGGETS WIN SERIES 4-1
EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS:
2 Boston Celtics vs 4 Indiana Pacers
CELTICS WIN SERIES 4-3
WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS:
1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs 2 Denver Nuggets
NUGGETS WIN 4-2
NBA FINALS
2 Boston Celtics vs 2 Denver Nuggets
NUGGETS WIN 4-2
V. No One is Talking About Denver… And They Love It
The 2025 Denver Nuggets are going to win the championship. The last team to win two championships with a year in between those titles were the early 2000 Spurs, who won in 2003, 2005, and 2007. The Nuggets are a different team from their 2023 championship selves. First off, Nikola Jokic is somehow playing better basketball. The former MVP is averaging a career high 29.8 PPG and 10.2 APG, while hitting 2 3-pointers per game on a staggering 45% from beyond the arc. Nikola is fouling less, turning the ball over at a low rate, and playing the most minutes of his career.
Michael Porter Jr. is having the most efficient year of his career, shooting 41.7% from deep on 2.7 3PM per game. Jamal Murray has been heating up as of late and is showing out on the defensive end, averaging the most steals per game in his career.
Bench pieces Peyton Watson and Julian Strawther have been incredible on both ends of the floor, providing a combined 17.7 PPG and 3.1 stocks per contest while shooting it at a 36% rate from beyond the arc. As role pieces to Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon, this front-court/wing rotation might be the most underrated in the league.
And now we get to the reasons they will win the championship. Christian Braun is a freaking winner. 15 PPG, 5.1 RPG, and 1.7 stocks per game on 57.8% shooting from the field. This guy is a winner. A winner in high school. A winner in college. A winner in the pros. Braun is a star in this league and isn’t afraid of any moment.
Secondly, isn’t Russell Westbrook due for a championship? Starting 27 of 48 games this season, Russ has finally found a home after so many years of bouncing around. He is averaging 13 PPG, 5.1 RPG, and 6.4 APG on fairly efficient shooting. Understanding that he is playing a secondary role to Jokic and Murray, we should be applauding Westbrook who has put himself in a position to win that elusive championship at the age of 36. And by the way, he deserves it more than KD, Harden, Chris Paul, Leonard, George, or any other aging superstar in the league. Yeah, I said it.
The Nuggets rank 5th in pace this season.
In 2024 they ranked 26th.
In the 2024 playoffs they ranked 7th.
In 2023 they ranked 24th.
In the 2023 playoffs they ranked 10th.
In 2022 they ranked 20th.
In the 2022 playoffs they ranked 6th.
In 2021, they ranked 27th.
In the 2021 playoffs they ranked 9th.
With the addition of Westbrook, Jokic playing the best offense of his career, and guys like Strawther and Braun creating massive impacts on the offensive end, Denver is the sneaky title contender who match up well against any team in the league, including Oklahoma City in the west. This team pushes the pace, doesn’t turn the ball over, moves the ball extremely well, and can defend at the rim. Shooting 51% from the field (1st) and 37.9% from three (3rd) with 31.3 APG (1st), the Nuggets should be on your radar and it’s okay that no one is talking about them at this point in the year… they like it that way.